Hussein Banai

“The difficult dilemma facing the Obama administration, therefore, is not simply one concerning the rights or responsibilities of Iran under the terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. It is how to address and navigate the crisis of political legitimacy haunting Khamenei and his radical base of power.”

Commentary for Muftah: 

[T]here is a great deal more at stake in the rift between Khamenei and Ahmadinejed than mere constitutional wrangling. Iran’s political landscape today is characterized by multiple centers of power, which sometimes overlap but are more often in direct conflict with one another.  Two nodes of this power struggle, Ahmadinejad’s supporters and the old oligarchic order of petrochemical and commercial interests, successfully joined forces and defeated the pragmatists and reformists. With these two groups eliminated, Ahmadinejad’s ever-expanding network of backers set their sights on destroying the old commercial oligarchs and on consolidating their control over the state.

Op-ed co-authored with Nina Tannenwald for CNN:

Moving forward, the challenge for the Obama administration is to manage Israeli misgivings about the utility of an aggressive diplomatic approach toward Iran while simultaneously offering Iran a face-saving exit out of its defiant posture.

Much like high-stakes diplomatic crises of previous eras involving nuclear weapons, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, averting war depends as much on decisions made in Tel Aviv and Tehran, as it does on the ingenuity of American policymakers. If President Obama plays his hand well, he may be able to succeed at containing Israel’s military threat and compelling Iran to back down on its nuclear program.